Attended a very interesting breakfast briefing at the Conrad in Dublin, by Jeremy Bentham, from Shell International's global headquarters in Den Haag.
Jeremy discussed Shell's modelling analyses of global energy mix portfolios, based on 80 different countries, and 8 different sectors (industry, domestic, transportation etc..) until 2050.
There are various scenarios, from "scramble" where there is an uncoordinated grab for energy supplies, and all that that implies, between nations; to "blueprint", where there are internationally co-ordinated agreements, from example using the United Nations.
A summary is available online from Shell here.
In my humble opinion, the message for Ireland is clear: as a matter of national security, Ireland should not assume that we will be able to continue to import energy supplies (e.g. oil, gas, or even coal...) from foreign suppliers.
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